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EPL Season Simulator

NewcastlePosition: 11thPoints: 42GD: +1Remaining: 8 games

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Remaining8 fixturesBaseline10,000 sims

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Deep Dive Snapshot

Newcastle Remaining Fixtures

Near-term matches use live bookmaker prices; longer-range fixtures are estimated using ELO ratings (slightly less accurate).

HOMEvs Sunderland

Win

57%

Draw

24%

Lose

19%

LIVE

AWAYvs Crystal Palace

Win

39%

Draw

27%

Lose

34%

LIVE

HOMEvs Fulham

Win

46%

Draw

26%

Lose

29%

EST

AWAYvs Everton

Win

27%

Draw

25%

Lose

47%

EST

HOMEvs Brighton

Win

47%

Draw

25%

Lose

28%

EST

AWAYvs Bournemouth

Win

29%

Draw

26%

Lose

45%

EST

HOMEvs Leeds

Win

56%

Draw

25%

Lose

19%

EST

AWAYvs Tottenham

Win

39%

Draw

26%

Lose

35%

EST

Current Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	31	21	7	3	+42	70
2	Man City	30	19	4	7	+31	61
3	Man United	31	16	7	8	+18	55
4	Aston Villa	30	15	6	9	+12	51
5	Chelsea	31	14	7	10	+14	49
6	Liverpool	31	14	7	10	+10	49
7	Brentford	30	13	6	11	+4	45
8	Everton	31	12	8	11	+5	44
9	Fulham	31	12	8	11	+2	44
10	Brighton	31	12	7	12	+3	43
11	Newcastle	30	12	6	12	+1	42
12	Bournemouth	31	12	6	13	-2	42
13	Sunderland	30	11	7	12	-1	40
14	Crystal Palace	30	11	6	13	-5	39
15	Leeds	30	9	5	16	-12	32
16	Tottenham	30	8	6	16	-14	30
17	Nott'm Forest	30	8	5	17	-19	29
18	West Ham	30	8	5	17	-21	29
19	Burnley	31	5	5	21	-30	20
20	Wolves	31	4	5	22	-38	17

Champions League UCL (5th) Europa League Conference League Relegation

Methodology

Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 season outcomes. Match probabilities sourced from bookmaker odds where available, and estimated from Elo ratings (derived from points-per-game) with home advantage adjustment for remaining fixtures. Each simulation randomly resolves all remaining matches using Poisson-distributed goal sampling, calculates final standings, and records finishing positions.

Sensitivity analysislocks each fixture to every possible result (home win / draw / away win) and re-runs 1,000 simulations per lock to measure the impact on the selected team's qualification odds.

What-If modelets you manually lock fixture outcomes and see how they affect the selected team's odds in real time. Lock any fixture — not just the selected team's — since a rival's loss can matter more than your team's win.

Scenarios stack multiple what-if assumptions (fixture locks and probability modifiers) to explore compound effects on qualification odds. Use the chat sidebar to describe scenarios in natural language.

Standings as of March 21, 2026. European places assume standard allocation (no cup winners adjustments).

10,000 sims × 72 fixtures

Best first step: build your baseline odds before trying scenarios.